ABSTRACT
This paper studied a stochastic epidemic model of the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Severe factors impacting the disease transmission are presented by white noise and compensated Poisson noise with possibly infinite characteristic measure. Large time estimates are established based on Kunita's inequality rather than Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for continuous diffusions. The effect of stochasticity is taken into account in the formulation of sufficient conditions for the extinction of COVID-19 and its persistence. Our results prove that environmental fluctuations can be privileged in controlling the pandemic behavior. Based on real parameter values, numerical results are presented to illustrate obtained results concerning the extinction and the persistence in mean of the disease. © 2021 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading in the world and the mortality rate is getting higher and higher. Due to the outbreak of such epidemic disease, many countries imposed stricter measures among which is social distancing and enforced isolation. The present study tries to establish a realistic model to characterize the dynamics of COVID-19 and explicitly parameterize the intervention effects of control measures. In so doing, it takes into account stochastic perturbation and investigates the effects of media coverage on the transmission dynamics. This paper seeks to study the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution to the proposed model and establish conditions for extinction and persistence in mean of the disease. Numerical simulations are presented to show the theoretical results obtained from this study. © 2021, Forum D'Analystes, Chennai.